What was supposed to be a rebuilding year for the St. Louis Cardinals has turned into a surprising resurgence—and one of the hottest storylines in baseball this May. Predicted by many to finish under .500 and continue sliding after a rocky 2024, the Cardinals have silenced doubters with a red-hot stretch that’s put them firmly in playoff contention.
After stumbling out of the gate to a 14-19 record by May 2, St. Louis has gone on an 18-5 tear since then, improving to 32-24 and climbing the National League standings. That surge includes winning five of their last six games and outscoring opponents by a staggering 45 runs through 56 contests. Simply put, the Cardinals are flying high at a time when most expected them grounded.
Middle Infield Leading the Charge
A massive part of the Cardinals’ success has come from their dynamic middle infield duo: Brendan Donovan and Masyn Winn.
Donovan, hitting a scorching .335, ranks third in the National League and leads in both hits (69) and doubles (18). His 144 OPS+ shows that he’s been 44% better than the average major league hitter—numbers that have made him one of the most consistent bats in the league.
Meanwhile, Masyn Winn continues to prove he’s the real deal. The young shortstop is batting .278 with a .357 on-base percentage and .438 slugging, good for a 122 OPS+. Pair that with his dazzling defense and highlight-reel plays, and it’s clear Winn is establishing himself as a foundational star.
Pitching Success, But With a Twist
The rotation has been surprisingly effective, even if not in the way traditional metrics might suggest. Matthew Liberatore looks like a breakout All-Star candidate with a 2.73 ERA, leading the league in walk rate (3.4%) and boasting a 6.4 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Sonny Gray has also been solid with a 3.55 FIP.
The rest of the rotation—Erick Fedde, Miles Mikolas, and Andre Pallante—have posted respectable ERAs despite below-average strikeout rates. Their ability to limit damage and pitch to contact has defied expectations.
The bullpen has its quirks too. Ryan Helsley, John King, and JoJo Romero all have ERAs below 3.72 despite WHIPs over 1.40, hinting at a touch of good fortune. But solid middle relievers like Kyle Leahy, Phil Maton, and Steven Matz have brought much-needed stability.
A Stroke of Health and Luck
One of the Cardinals’ biggest assets so far has been their health. With only one player—lefty Zack Thompson—on the injured list (and Thompson being a minimal contributor in 2024), St. Louis has lost less projected value to injuries than any other team in baseball, according to Baseball Prospectus.
This rare durability has allowed the team to remain consistent while other clubs battle attrition.
Offseason Austerity, On-Field Riches
Perhaps the most remarkable part of this turnaround is that it comes after a winter filled with budget cuts and low expectations. The front office made clear they would trim payroll and lean into youth development. They let Paul Goldschmidt leave in free agency and shopped Nolan Arenado without finding a deal.
The only free agent signing? Phil Maton on a modest one-year, $2 million deal.
Yet here we are—two months into the season, and the Cardinals are outperforming big-spending rivals. Their estimated payroll of $164 million is their lowest since 2015 and nearly $44 million less than last year.
What Comes Next?
Sustaining this level of success might be difficult, especially as advanced metrics suggest some regression is likely for the pitching staff. Offensively, the team still has holes—particularly in the corner outfield and at the first base/DH spot. If they want to stay competitive deep into the summer, a few smart additions at the trade deadline could be key.
But for now, St. Louis is riding high on momentum, cohesion, and a group of hungry players with something to prove. And if May is any indication, the Cardinals may have just rewritten the narrative of their 2025 season
